May 21, 2007

The difference a year makes.

Last year the Mets and the Yankees both finished tied with the best win/loss record in baseball both teams winding up with a 97 (win) 65 (loss) season.

Even though each team had the best record in their respective league, neither was able to make it out of the playoffs and into the World Series.

This year fortunes have changed and what might have looked good on paper turns out not to be as good as expected and what didn’t look good on paper turns out to be better than expected.

So, where do the two teams stand as of today a week before June begins at what could be considered a third of the way into the season?

Well, the Mets have played 43 games to this point. Their record is 28 (wins) versus 15 (losses) and if they are to match last year’s record they will have to play ten games over .500 the rest of the way going 69 (wins) and 49 (losses). Yes, there are 118 games left in the ’07 seasons and 59 is 118 divided by two so if the Mets can play well over the next few weeks they make their job the rest of the way infinitely easier.

The Yankees?

Well, the Yankees enter today with a 19 (wins) and 23 (losses) record meaning they’ve actually played one less game then the Mets so there are 120 games left in the Yankees season if it is necessary for them to play all of them. If the Yankees are to match the record they posted last season they will have to go 78 (wins) and 42 (losses) the rest of the way or in other words play .650 percentage baseball from today until the end of the season. They need to play 18 games over .500 the rest of the way.

A few years back, when the Mets were being managed by Art Howe, I realized sometime around mid-May the season was over for them. They just didn’t have the horses or the kind of team that could go on a really prolonged win streak necessary to put them into contention.

I haven’t read anything about it but, it was then I started to realize if a team plays really well in April and the beginning of May they can make it much, much easier for themselves over the course of a baseball season. One of those big early season holes becomes insurmountable after a point.

Like I said, I haven’t read anything about this topic anywhere else but, slowly this has become ingrained within me as a theory about baseball. Teams doing well at the start of the season are just going to have an easier time of it. Right now, if you look, Boston with 30 wins only has to play 8 games over .500 the rest of the way to have the same record the Yankees and Mets wound up with last year.

Truthfully it usually takes a little bit more to lead the league in wins whether it’s the American League or the National League but, not a lot more. Anything can happen between now and the end of the season but, like the man said, “It gets late awfully early around here.”

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